Think Design : The Overconfidence Effect

I’m going to make a prediction. If I’m right, you have to read the rest of this post. Deal? Okay, here goes…

If you work in the games industry, you have been on a game project where at least one of these things happened:

  1. You had to cut features.
  2. The game went over schedule.
  3. The game went over budget.

I knew you’d still be reading. Almost every project in our industry suffers from one or more of these outcomes because of something called the Overconfidence Effect.

Here’s a challenge for you: The Sydney Opera House began construction in 1959. The original estimate stated that it would be completed in 1963 for a total cost of about $7 million. When do you think it was actually completed, and how much do you think it actually cost? Try to be accurate. I’ll give you the answer later.

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